Estimating Juror Accuracy, Juror Ability, and the Relationship Between Them
Submitted on Saturday, 24 July 2010
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Abstract
This article advances a method based on standard test theories and measurement models to determine correct verdicts for jury
trials, and to estimate juror accuracy, juror ability, and trial difficulty (and the relationships among them). With five
vignette cases and 1,318 juror eligible adults as the subjects, the model consistently identified verdicts that accorded with
the judge’s instructions on the law as correct. With the correct verdicts, the strength of the relationship between juror
accuracy and juror ability was found to be substantial. These findings suggest that the assumption of equivalent accuracy
of jurors underlying the Condorcet’s jury theorem (Condorcet, Essai sur l’Application de l’Analyse a la Probabilite des Decisions
Rendues a la Pluralite des Voix, Paris, 1785) may be untenable for general cases where jurors of diverse dispositions and abilities serve together; and that the role
of juror ability in determining the accuracy of legal decisions could be more significant than that of attitudes and values
because, unlike attitudes and values, ability could affect juror’s legal decisions regardless of the type of the case.
- Content Type Journal Article
- Category Original Article
- DOI 10.1007/s10979-010-9240-6
- Authors
- Kwangbai Park, Chungbuk National University Department of Psychology Mt. 48 Gaeshin-dong Cheongju City, Chungbuk Republic of Korea
- Journal Law and Human Behavior
- Online ISSN 1573-661X
- Print ISSN 0147-7307
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